At Arcus Policy Research, our Market Intelligence function builds data-driven systems to monitor, analyze, and forecast agricultural commodity prices across the value chain—from farm gate to retail. We integrate multi-source data on production, supply-demand balance, trade, policies, and macroeconomic indicators into a unified analytical platform. Using econometric, time-series, and machine learning models, we predict price movements, assess transmission margins, and simulate policy impacts such as MSP changes, import duties, or export bans. Our cloud-based dashboards provide real-time insights, scenario analysis, and CPI-linked inflation tracking, enabling our clients and other stakeholders to make proactive, evidence-based policy decisions and ensure market stability through timely interventions.
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/AI/ Arcus Institute

Agricultural Production. Supply Factors. Demand Factors. Policy Inputs. Macro Indicators. External Drivers.

Data harmonization. Feature generation

Supply-Demand Balance Model. Price Prediction Engine. Price Transmission Mode. Policy Simulation Engine. CPI Adjustment & Inflation Linkage.

Forecasts. Policy Impact. Elasticities. Inflation Impact. Retail Benchmarking.

Data Sources → ETL Pipeline → Analytical Model Stack → Forecast Outputs → Dashboard Interface

Forecast Trends. Supply-Demand Monitor. Policy Simulator. Retail Price Index. Inflation Monitor.

Sensitivity checks for policy shocks.. Cross-validation across commodities and states. Regular retraining cadence (monthly/quarterly).
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